The Beginning of the End of Somalia’s Statehood
The 4th Political Crisis of Somalia is On the Horizon - By Prof. Mohamoud Iman Adan (Keydmedia) Virginia, USA - In 1992, the UN peacekeeping in Somalia had backfired as the mandate became part of the problem as UN sided with a certain faction group, while alienating another faction group.
The TNG headed by Abdulqasim Salad Hassan in 2004 had ephemeral life and failed because the tools of peacemaking and reconciliation efforts were foreign forged tools alien to the value and concept of the Somali people.
The following TFG headed by Abdullahi Yusuf was entangled with the Ethiopian and UN stewardship and failed because it was the product UN-Ethiopian amalgamation.
The current TFG headed by Sherif Ahmed does not fare any better, and had followed the lead of Abdullahi Yusuf by destroying Mogadishu and its civilian population under the trust ship of the United Nations.
What would you expect then a 4th TFG brokered by Dr. Augustine Mahiga and sponsored by the UN and IGAD countries?
The consultative meeting of Somali parties in Nairobi on 12-13 of April under the auspice of Dr. Augustine Mahiga heralded a new beginning of Somalia’s political crises of unprecedented magnitude. The blueprint of next convention is an outcome in everyone’s mind as it reflects the following contexts.
a) The new alliance of Sherif Sakin, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamea and Abdurahman Farole is getting off the ground. Sherif Sakin and Farole are working on the finale details of power sharing strategy, namely: Who is going to be the next president, and who will take over the Chairmanship of the Legislative Chamber.
The omens indicate that Farole will be getting away with the position of the head of the National State, except the Somaliland, while Sherif Sakin will consolidate the rest of the government power in the southern regions of Somalia.
b) Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamea will take the premiership and may appoint a leader of their choice, irrespective of his regional background and clan loyalty. Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamea will also emerge a formidable political asset for Farole and Sherif Sakin in order to dismantle the political base of the current TFG, as well as liquidating Sherif Ahmed’s supporters in his hometown.
c) The seat of the government shall be transferred to Garowe with the pretext of optimum peace and stability in the region, and will remain there during his tenure as President of Somalia. Garowe shall also remain as the State Capital of Puntland, as well.
We hear that certain retired rich pirates are undertaking to build offices and residential villas for the future accredited diplomats, UN offices and humanitarian organizations at Garowe, a feat that has currently high jacked the price of real state there.
d) Sherif Sakin is ending the political clout of Sheikh Sherif Ahmed, and is already at work of preparing the burial site for his nemesis, while rehearsing his obituary.
e) The Galmudug delegation headed by Mr. Alin has scored the lowest political points by failing to carve a portion of the contending cake, namely Somalia, or walking out of the political scene of the country and opting out for economic incentives, such as: Construction of Hobbio Port, Hobbio Regional Airport and a road link between Hobbio and Galkaio.
This is a hard bargaining for Farole to accept on investing the infrastructure of Galmudug Regional Administration and will cost him a political capital as such development will definitely be affecting the Bosasso port revenue and job opportunities. The rest of the other parties gained a milestone beyond their expectations, where Mr. Ali and his delegation were marginalized and ultimately pushed aside on the sidelines.
f) Sherif Sakin may emerge as the President of Somalia. He has the right tools of holding one foot in Mogadishu, while consolidating his political base at Bay and Bakool regions. In either case, if it Galmudug does not take a timely and conclusive political position before the end of the political season, then Mr. Alin has to accept the respected Arabic dictum that says: “Whoever marries my mother is my uncle”.
The predicament of AMISOM is uncertain if the leaders of the TFG it had protected for years fall apart and fight to tear each other to the finish. In that fateful day, The UN and AMISOM have nothing left to say or do unless to throw the gauntlet and leave home.
The IGAD countries will remain aghast to such unpredictable development. The well-wishing donor countries will remain disappointed for decades to come and turn their backs to Somalia forever. Will UN condemn itself and learn from its mistakes for future interventions in order to address other hot spots in the 3rd world countries? Perhaps that is the day that Somalis will agree to compromise and the do the right thing where UN failed to address for decades…!
The Preliminary Conflict
The heat of the political infighting in Mogadishu is already in the offing, and soon, there may be isolated incidents, or all front armed clashes between the two Sheriffs, while employing the armed wings of respective clan militia and local community leaders. The war will take clannish aspect, and will be hard to predict where it will lead.
If Sherif Sakin wins, Sherif Ahmed has nowhere else to retreat among his clan loyalties; he will opt out for political asylum. But if Sherif Sakin loses the challenge, then he may fall back to Bay and Bakool strongholds in order to reinforce his military muscle and comeback to finish off Sherif Ahmed where he left.
In anyway, Somalia will fall back again into decades of political insolvency in the hands of the UN and the supervision of neighboring EAGAD countries. Why not follow the simple fact of Somali proverb that says: The milk/water container is weaved from the base. Allegorically, the political solution for Somalia is in the hands of its people.
They have the traditional tools to do so, and to that regard, the next convention should be held in Somalia, no matter where and how long will it take to materialize.
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