What is the lesson learned from historic victory in Al-Shabaab war?
The combination of a prolonged drought, increasing conflict, and rising food prices are projected to drive food insecurity up, reaching catastrophic levels for more than 81 000 people by June 2022 and with a risk of famine in several areas.
The war in Ukraine has exerted upward pressure on already elevated global food prices, with major effects on acute food insecurity. Furthermore, economic concerns are additionally driving food insecurity, as the world economy – still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic – has slowed down due to global supply chain disruptions, high levels of inflation, and increasing public debt.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that acute food insecurity is likely to deteriorate further in some countries or situations during the outlook period from June to September 2022.
These countries all have parts of populations identified or projected to experience starvation or death (Catastrophe, IPC Phase 5) or at risk of deterioration towards catastrophic conditions and require the most urgent attention.
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In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 25.9 million people are projected to face a crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including 5.4 million people in an emergency between January and June 2022. The recent escalation in conflicts and population movements, as well as increasing food prices, could increase the magnitude and severity of acute food insecurity, especially in eastern provinces.
Reaching the highest level on record, about 19.5 million people are projected to be in crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity in Nigeria during the lean season (June– August 2022), including 1.2 million in an emergency, if humanitarian interventions are not scaled up and sustained.
Three states (Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe) contain about half the population in an emergency, and more than one-quarter of people in critical need of emergency assistance in Borno are projected to be located in inaccessible areas where access to life-saving assistance is expected to be lacking.
In 2021, 18 million people were estimated to require food assistance in Ethiopia, and this number is likely to have increased further. Major economic challenges will likely be further aggravated by Ethiopia’s high dependence on fuel, fertilizer, and wheat imports, with two-thirds of wheat imports traditionally sourced from the Russian Federation and Ukraine. As a result, already high local food prices – 43.4 percent food inflation year-on-year in March 2022161 – will likely further increase. Furthermore, already high costs of fertilizers are expected to increase further due to the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine.
The most recent IPC analysis projected that 7.7 million people would face a crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity between April and July 2022. This includes almost 2.9 million people in emergency and 87 000 in catastrophe. These numbers show a 7 percent increase in the number of people in crisis or worse and a 17 percent increase of people in emergency or worse in comparison to the same period last year. Populations in the catastrophe are located in counties in Jonglei, Lakes, Unity states, and Greater Pibor Administrative Area.
More than 6 million people – 38 percent of the population – are projected to face a crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity between April and June 2022, including 1.7 million people in emergency and 81 000 people in catastrophe. The combination of a prolonged drought, increasing conflict, and rising food prices are projected to drive food insecurity up, reaching catastrophic levels for more than 81 000 people by June 2022 and with a risk of famine in several areas.Source:/Business Insider
The offensive was launched without relying on the African Union forces, who have been reluctant since 2007 to engage in a real war with Al-Shabaab. The AU mission failed to bring an end to the long and costly war.