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Tuesday 30 November 2010 | KON

SENDING MORE FOREIGN PEACEKEEPING FORCES TO SOMALIA?

By Prof. Mohamoud Iman Adan- Virginia, USA - Prelude: Again such policy is unpractical and counterproductive. Since early1992, the World has witnessed similar policies advocated and sponsored by UN Security Council, which never got off the ground due to the culture and character of the Somali people. In the other hand, foreign soldiers stationed in hostile ground, like the southern Somalia, are not performing peace keeping duties alone.

Teaser Image SENDING MORE FOREIGN PEACEKEEPING FORCES TO SOMALIA?

Their other priorities include making big backs and protecting themselves and the military gear under their custody without a second thought. The order is shoot at real or presumed enemy before a comrade is harmed. After all, soldiers are trained to over power or kill opponents.  So the epic name of peace keeping doesn't hold water an does not make any sense to the victimized civilian population. Rather, it is a commercialized political jargon to mislead the people, just to solicit financial contributions for Somalia in the name of peace and development. And the southern regions of Somalia won't buy it.

By tradition, foreign army stationed in the country is seen a national threat- a concept embedded in the social values of the people for centuries. The UN, the East African countries, as well as many Western Nations do not take this fact into account and avoid to consult with the tradition of the recipient nation of how they would like to be helped. Instead, they are shoved foreign forged policies into their throats, which in most cases, is unpalatable to the taste of the masses.

Regardless of the will of the conflicted regions, EGAD and UN are fond of implementing such ineptitude policies and deploying foreign armed forces in the southern regions of Somalia, a failed one after another. In doing so, UN has to get prepared to change an old age social perception that resists intervention of foreign army in their country without their consent. God knows how long do such policies could work for the UN; but the local people believe that resisting masses will outlast than any foreign policy imposed on them. Such unity of purpose has supporting historical background element, and, perhaps, not taken note by the UN Security Council. A few example suffice for reckoning the mental frame of the local people under foreign military threat:

I. Somali nomads fought a campaign of tug of war with Ethiopian hermit kingdoms. The long lasting conflict was about land expansion and pasture rights. Ethiopian farmers retaliated by severing the main tendons of camels' hind legs-the pride and lifeline treasure of the pastoral Somali society, just to intimidate the nomads. The conflicting parties had a different mental frame. The Somali pastorals believed that pasture and water are the grace of God and no one should claim exclusive ownership over them. But the Ethiopian farmers believed in land ownership and opted out to fight such concept; but finally gave up to taking part of the conflict for so long and settled valley farmlands among higher plateaus, where livestock could hardly get by. The conflict ended after the death of Ahmed Gurey, “The left handed pastoral leader,” who led the resistance. Local historians have it that the conflict era coincided with the timing of Christoforo Colombo trip on his way to find a short cut way to the land of spaces in 1492. The pastorals had a purpose of unity and resisted retaliatory actions of their foes.

II. In early 19th Century, Italian military contingents made incursions on the Eastern coast of Somalia only to meet a fierce resistance by Biyamal warriors that lasted 21 years of bloody skirmishes. The local uprising held up off shore the invasive enemy for so long and did not capitulate to the on-slaughtering cannon fire. At the end, the military stubbornness gave way to subtle diplomacy and the Italian admiralty negotiated with a policy of peaceful terms of non-interference and respectable co-existence with the local community. The contingents were finally allowed to land on shore safe and trustworthy.  It was the first military contingents settled at Shalambot, 60 miles south of Mogadishu who became the front-runners of the Italian colonization task force in the Southern Somalia. Take note of the war chronology historic book titled “ferro e' Fuoco” in East Africa. This is an example of how the Somalis had always reserved contempt about foreign intrusion into the country.

III. On the opposite side of Northwest coast of Somalia, the British army was bogged down by the Dervishes- the horse-bone pastoral warriors- led by Mohamed Abdulle Hassan- a charismatic local leader who resisted the invasion of foreign army into the country. The British Foreign Office wanted meat supplies for its garrison stationed in Aden, south Yemen and fought the Darvishes to the end by establishing a military base at Berbera, a seaport at the Red Sea that faces South Yemen.

It was not an easy walkover as jotted by the British foreign policy-makers; but turned to become a long war, which had all the ingredients of pastoral warrior psyche and the military mighty of British Empire that lasted for 21 bloody years. At the end, the Dervishes got defeated by the bombardment of RAF, the British Royal Air Force in early 20th century fought at foreign soil. RAF destroyed the strongholds of Dervishes at Taleeh and elsewhere, located some 90 miles Northeast of Berbera; yet no British foot soldier dared to follow the Dervishes and finish off the retreating warriors for good. The British aviation technology won the war by using its air force superiority, which was  the last resort for the British army to win a challenging war.

Those survived dervishes argued that the bombardment was not one to one man war in the open. Details of the wars are available at British Military museum in London that could have served a lesson for the UN Security Council to consult before sending armed contingents into the country. The net shell of the war engagement revolved on two clashing factors: The pride of egalitarian pastorals against the indomitable ego of British army. The Dervishes had this mindset: Who budges first? Who owns the land in contention? Who has the final say? Was the outcome of the war worthy of loss of lives, property and human resources?  

IV. In 1964, the Somali nascent army had border dispute with the impressive Ethiopian army. It took a month to push the Ethiopian forces back to their bases in Ethiopian heartland and dusted off their hands. The pastoral army came back home war hardened and victorious. Again the local forces showed that no foreign army can invade the country without impunity.

V. In 1977-78, Somalia had land dispute war with Ethiopia. It was a hard fought war and costly one for both sides. In three months, the pastoral army routed the Ethiopian military regiments nicknamed “The Lion of African,” and planted the national flag some 90 miles East of Addis Abeba, the Capital City of Ethiopia. In good time, whoever, the military alliance of Ethiopia, Russia, Cuba and South Yemen helped out the besieged country and restored the land it had lost, while pushing the Somali army back over the border line. The war ended but, it increased the enmity of the two nations- a lingering hard feeling Ethiopia reserves for Somalia until now.

VI. The Role of UN in Somalia

UN involvement in Somalia has nothing to do with humanitarian endeavors. Rather, it unmitigated business. As elsewhere in some other parts of the world, conflicted 3rd world nations create steady jobs for UN involvement into the internal affairs of their countries. If conflict trend drops down, there are always subtle ways to strike new grounds and keeping the momentum; because a world without armed conflicts is a sure way of ending UN profile in the world. So the survival of UN Regional Offices in Nairobi, Kenya feed and prosper on human tragedy and relish to stay on course; but they are not alone. There are hundreds of Somali political goons who destabilize peace and security of the southern regions and connect well with UN Regional Officials. They are accepted as the best buddies of UN Regional services as they are instrumental of keeping Somalia in turmoil, while keeping UNDP in business.

This is a fact: The same Somali relief and reconstruction budget contributed by the well-wishing nations around the globe sustains also the functioning of UNDP Regional Office in East Africa. It doesn't make any sense for their policy-makers to broker a permanent peace and stability in Somalia. That is the end of their lucrative jobs. Inquire at what percentage of the donated funds is forwarded to the recipient nation? I don't imagine that UNPD is ready to shoot its foot by disclosing guarded facts.

Consider another apt example: If all Somali politicians agree-no matter on what, and bury their differences for good- then the patronizing presence of UNDP will have a limited role to play, except, perhaps sending excess UN staff back home and helping out limited sectoral developing projects in stable autonomous regions .

VII. The Birth Of UNISOM

In 1992 the UN Security Council adopted a sweeping resolution to send some 35,000 strong of peacekeeping contingents to Somalia, which was hastily forwarded by 35 nations around the world. The mission was called “UNISOM.” It was the most opportune time for the UN Security Council to broker a political settlement between two contending leaders who resided close quarters in Mogadishu. Dissipating the political conflict was a golden opportunity that could have glorified the intervention of UN Security Council in Somalia. Instead of nailing down a binding political and peaceful agreement with the two leaders, UNISOM sided with one and drew itself into the local conflict. Within months, the Secretary of the UN Mr. Boutrus B. Ghali had lost the respected neutrality image of UN with the Somali masses as it supported one leader- politically and financially- while hunting the other one because he contested the role of UN peace keeping.

Besides of political blunders during its mandate, UNISOM did not built a single classroom, or refurbished one in the regions it operated. Not a single community clinic has been established, or a petty cash paid off to a volunteer teacher. Only humanitarian organizations supplied medicine consignment to hospitals and their medical staff intervened in ER cases.

What is even more appalling is how three billion USD mission budget  has been spent in three years? All local social services were run by voluntary staff day and night, and no one had ever received a dime from UNISOM administration, when it threw surplus funds to right and left and renting old Russian choppers with three million USD per month, and paying 1/2 a liter bottled spring water with three USD each. At the end of UNISOM mandate, there were no UN audit to verify how the funds were spent and that was the end of it.

The toll of human tragedy is yet a staggering factor. UNISOM staged the “Michigan Operation” that destroyed 73 community leaders and non-partition senior civil servants- including some pregnant women- who were initiating dialogue with Admiral Howe- the field representative of the General Secretary of the UN Mr. Boutrus B. Ghali.  The Red Cross Organization has verified the tragic death and recorded the UN man manslaughter in its files. The population of the southern regions have learned that peace keepers are not really peace keepers but as destructive phenomena that stifle peace and stability of targeted nations, like Somalia. The UN name, simply, does not make them saints!

Somalis are well aware of the political fallout of UNISOM mission, which further polarized the political contention and opened a new chapter of political insolvency in the southern regions. Finally, UNISOM left Somalia in 1994, humiliated, but lined up their hip pockets. But who can condemn the sacred cow?

VIII. Self-Inflicted Wounds

Somalia is victimized by its interest group. They call themselves politicians, but they do not offer any political solution viable for the country. They make the equation and see that anarchy and lawlessness pay them better than other peaceful means and escalate political turmoil and local wars in order to fish in murky waters. To the extent of supporting a permanent enemy in the country, some of them invest on Al-Shabab and other radical factions to undermine a prominent leader to fail or short cut the clout of rival clan to loose political grounds. Numerically, they could number one thousand or two and are affiliated to different clans and sub-clans across the country, but they are vocal and misleading entity who are prepared to keep the southern regions hostage forever. Every one of them is self-appointed and enjoy his clan support whenever he needs a bigger clout. The interest group spend most of their nighttime hours chewing Qat- the herbal stimulant and set up political traps to bring down genuine leaders who can change the political scene of the country.

They are all male club mix you usually meet them shuffling in the hallways of international humanitarian organizations in the hope of renting a 4WD light vehicle, a house or soliciting a preferential treatment with UN political officials for their own sake. Every one of them wants to outsmart his companion and prefers to meet with UN operatives in private setting. They don't care about the plight of the people they are quite willing to sell-off their hearts and dignities in order to get a political position in the TFG establishment or to earn the ear of the UN political Office in Nairobi.  When one of them is politically threatened, his clan supporters invest in him and shed blood for his survival. They are expert of manipulating his people and those who come to help Somalia. They are the past, the present and the future enemy of the people. The world has to find a short cut way to marginalized and uproot them from the political scene of the country. One way of disposing them is to outfox them by giving more emphasis for the development of the stable regions and that's where they loose their profile.

IX. The Prospect of Transitional Federal Government?

The Southern regions of Somalia are overshadowed by the squabble of institutionalizing unpopular Transitional federal Governments. The majority of the population are denying its legality and see it a UN turf that cuts short the Somali expectation. The UN method of peace-making and brokering stability denies the will and aspiration of the people by shoving a conceived form of government into their throats. It is wrong and untimely to give all the attention to a moribund FTG and spending millions of USD foreign contingents in the country, while they can spend that same money to recruit thousands of pastoral warriors who would have cleaned the mess of Al-Shabab and other radical factions in short time. After all, the government is for the people and not the vice versa. And that is another contemptuous factor about the geniality of the UN Regional Offices that handles the Somali affairs.

In 2000, the Djibouti government in concert with the UN forged a TFG. It was a genuine intervention sought after by a brotherly country that wanted to put the dismantled nation back together. Unfortunately, the 1st TFG had lost its credibility right after the elected President finished reading the appreciation speech of his nomination. Why? Simply, the nation did not hear what he had in agenda. In fact, he had no national reconciliation agenda to stabilizing the country and let off hands marauding thugs to rob the civilian population and creating instability. He did what unpopular presidents would do who followed after his lead: Traveling hand in cap and pocketing whatever cash that has been entrusted in him that belonged to the needy people. After their mandate is over, their destination is to settle a castle in any neighboring country and live for free. In each TFG demise, UN fails along with them.

In 2004, the transfer of power of two TFGs Presidents- the 1st one & the 2nd one was swift and acrimonious. As was always the case, UN and EGAD head of states pulled their favorite proxy leaders under their hats. Ethiopia won the contest and its confidential clients were sworn for TFG leadership and Prime Minister respectively. The politically savvy people disclaimed the TFG the same day. They knew the political underpinning of such government and the clout of Ethiopia in the Somali affairs.   In a few days, the new President turned into a clan chieftain and abandoned reconciliation efforts the majority of Somalis had in mind. It was a new down of political insolvency in Somalia.

To add insult to the injury, the UN Regional Office and the USA State Department supported the Ethiopian army to back up the unpopular TFG and overran the southern regions of Somalia, in order to hunt down Islamic Courts in 2004. It was a historic feat for Ethiopia- the archenemy of Somalia- to control the fate of the fate of Somalia As expected the hostile army killed thousands and thousands of civilians of all ages, while destroying half of Mogadishu properties at will, and displacing 2.5 million urban residents out of their homes. The world has witnessed the destruction of a nation by a revenging army, yet did nothing to stop or alter the on slaughter. It was when the conscience of the world leaders turned a deaf ear to the plight of human beings.

In the meantime, the Islamic Courts melted into thin air and Al-Shabab picked up the slack. Al-Shabab fought with unexpected resistance against the Ethiopian army. After three years of relentless military campaign in Southern Regions of Somalia, the Ethiopian army pulled out of the country, but left behind a crippled nation and scores of radicalized faction groups on the loose. The whole picture remains a total ineptitude.

Now the Somali masses ask the following questions:

 

  • Who created Al-Shabab in the 1st place?
  • How piracy become a threat of world trade?
  • Who displaced 2.5 civilians from their homes?
  • Who killed thousands and thousands of civilians of all ages in their homes and never regretting the human tragedy?
  • Who forced out thousands of residents to flee from their neighborhoods only to perish in high seas?
  • Who supported the invaders?
  • Who compensate the human tragedy and destruction of property
  • Who treats the sick and the traumatized residents? And more...

Again UN and EAGAD nations supported the formation of AMISOM to replace the Ethiopian army in 2009 and were handed over the shield of peace keeping mission. The soldiers are from friendly countries, but nonetheless, they are as fierce as any other army by destroying civilian population in targeted urban enclaves, where 87% of their random tank shell barrages kill people, irrespective of the hour of the day, their age, gender and social background. The death toll could be contested-one thousands or ten thousands per month- but the extent of material destruction is incontestable.

AMISOM contingents just picked up where the Ethiopian army had left the military campaign and came up with a renewed fighting spirit and delivering harder impact on defenseless population that dwarfed even the Ethiopian apocalypse. The world justifies the erratic tragedy they cause, and their action stands out as legitimate. The world powers are not yet ready to intervene and clean up the mess. It is one way of saying: “Well, too bad for the civilian population residing Mogadishu. They happen to live in war zones and we cannot help them. Let's punish them to the end.” Next day the biased leading mass media admits that AMISOM hits only Al-Shabab hides outs, and it was unfortunate that death toll included scores of children and women  killed with astray bullets.

This is another fact on the ground: Whenever a disgruntled youngster fires a pistol to AMISOM whereabouts, the peace keepers retaliate by firing tank shells to the Bakara Market enclave- the densely populated financial center of Mogadishu and harming innocent people at large. Since AMISOM came in Mogadishu, the human toll is growing very steep and the up trend is shooting higher day after day. The dead are not compensated and the injured are not treated and taken care at the expenses of AMISOM or the UN.

Just to use a fitting analogy- if someone kills a squirrel or a bird on purpose on USA soil, then he/she has committed animal atrocity and risks a jail term- but the massive destruction of lives and the loss of properties under the watch of UN go unheeded, and no one addresses the human calamity. It sounds that such tragedies had never occurred. Another parallel analogy but to a greater extent until now and ever- True, the proud Somali masses are bent with anger and suffer injustice and unworthiness. They are not worthy of a dead squirrel and UN has to explain that?

The unspoken betrayal of TFG, EGAD and UN Regional Office is even more resounding. It is said that Ethiopian contingents came back to Mogadishu and  found their way into their former check points in the City. They joined with Burundian and Ugandan contingents in May and August of 2010. The difference is that they are dressed with the Burundi military uniform, but they  fire tank shells to residential neighborhoods side by side with AMISOM contingents. Certainly, the TFG establishment is a party with the secret deal, but is not willing to disclose the truth to the victimized local masses because its is part and parcel of the game.

X. Who Is Fooling Who?

After UMISOM pulled out from Somalia in 1994, the country fell back into a political lethargy, and UN made a fresh come back after healing its wounds. This time, it had a new profile and a new mandate- Forming a TFG from zero ground. It had all resources to do so and political back up that legitimized their plans. From 2000-2008 it brokered the establishment of three consecutive, yet unpopular TFGs, who were forged on foreign soil and blessed by patronizing neighboring countries of EGAD. Taking note of the composition of legislators and cabinet ministries of the current TFG. There are hidden facts on the ground that the world mass media misses, or ignores to identify:

There are two TFG legislative bodies seated on opposing sides under the same roof. Each wing is supportive, either to the past or the current TFG administrations. Whenever a motion is put forward for adoption by the current legislative wing, the shadow wing opposes diametrically, simply because it doesn't see any political benefit for themselves and  affiliated leaders. To drive their point home, they drum up chaos in the parliament by smashing chairs on the heads of their contenders with the intent of killing the motion to pass with striking majority. Every thing is postponed for some time. A following session may offer a retaliatory chance good for the assaulted wing- and stage a fitting rematch to even out grudge they held for the shadow government. It is just a perfect see- saw game at children play ground. The prevailing attitude is my way or the highway, because there's no culture of civilized political debate in the parliament. legislators need schooling. They need to under-go intensive courses of learning legislative procedure, legislator code of good conduct and ethics and a civil servant's social obligation before they are sworn to office.

Most of the day, legislators spend time pursing personal mundane rendezvous. Legislators of the divided house rub shoulders and while away time by playing parochial political tit for tat chattering as they solicit favors or lobby for affiliated leaders, instead of carrying the expected obligations for the nation. Their political position is unquestionable and no one  has ever been fired of incompetence. Their everyday job is not what they are expected to do for the country- They just follow the political orientation dictated by respective TFG presidents (past & present) and cashing-in petty cash only when someone wants to buy votes, and whoever pays an extra dime carries the day!

In the Somali political arena, corruption is the way to go where the least reputable character could emerge as the leader of the nation. No surprises. It sound weird but it is all about business. The corrupted hopeful pays his position in cash, gets elected by hooks and crocks and gets back the corruption expenses with corruption offsets money pipelined him from the rear door of his office by foreign business conglomerates. In short, corruption is seen a solid investment that has a high return and quite tempting.   

The rest of the current TFG establishment is stranded on the same labyrinthine cross-roads: The current President of the Parliament is in loggerhead with the President of the TFG and cajole for more political leverage. He is hungry for self-glory and wants to land on prominent political stage on the expense of the will of the nation. He is passing on a politically charged threshold and pays his way with corrupted money and turning the honorable position bestowed upon him by the people for his personal political turf. His political motto: Topple the TFG president along with the prime minister and the cabinet members, and eventually taking over his place. It doesn't take political campaigning. It takes only a steady supply of corrupt money to drive a leader out of office. It is a political mafia quite ordinary in the culture of questionable politicians in Somalia.

The TFG President maybe throwing some under cut punches in a restricted boxing ring to his opponent(s). He loves his position and assails those who criticize his authority in a subtle way. It is challenging, but sometimes he must display decisive leadership quality quite rare in the TFG establishment. Paying a lip service to the people, while criticizing his opponents pays him some dividends for some time. He loves to travel and meet with generous Islamic leaders who throw at him bulging pouches for personal back up and he prefers to be alone. His enemy are influential members of his government he can do nothing about them. His worry is time constrains, or rather the end of his term and how he can manipulate a political come. Everything he does or will be doing every day is to survive politically during his term, while amassing gift capital to be used for his re-election.

However nominating prime minister maybe the most challenging task he has to live with. The Prime Minister may not be his choice but politically bargained through saber contest. The Prime minister is nailed down on fire range target contended by the two Presidents- the TFG and the Parliament- The Prime minister is bounded under the mercy of a pack of divided legislative house, barking at him from both sides and trying to milk him out some cash to vote for him, instead of giving him a chance to serve the nation according to his ability. He is not free to come up with a viable social reform or improving stagnant affairs of the country, such as giving priority of the security of the country. That stand may give headache from under ground legislators who supporters of Al-Shabab. Fighting with piracy is a hot issue which he can do nothing much it, but serves him as the cry baby. Feeding the displaced communities huddled under plastic roofed thorny bushes outside of Mogadishu may sound unrealistic  to many legislators who favored their displacement during the previous TFG. Every issue the Prime minister puts forward for immediate attention is criticized and ostracized. The include: Job opportunities for jobless young generation, reforming health and the educational system, doing their responsibilities or relinquishing their positions, etc...etc... He just finds himself under the fire from all side and the President of the TFG or the President of the Legislative body may lead the weird opposition. Eventually, either one of the two presidents may call his resignation and he is fired next day without ceremony. Both legislative and judiciary branches are powerless. The supreme judge can be fired before he dares to contest certain faulty functions of the government. The executive branch is ruled by the president of the TFG who keeps all the power concentrated in his hip pockets. The Prime Minister is hostage of the whim of the two presidents, and no one follows the written rules in the statuary book that defines the power of respective branches of government. Even the simple wisdom of social and ethical obligation is missing- If the prime minster comes short of the national expectation, then vote him out of office in a civilized manner. But that refined political view is not happening any soon. That's where we need the help of the UN to step in and write down a fitting constitution based on the culture and way of life of the people, instead of brokering another failing TFG.

The cabinet ministries are not faring any better, too. They cannot plan and carry out their responsibilities because they have no space to breathe and peace of mind to function. Insecurity and lack of ministerial budget make their efforts inept and futile. Physically and mentally, they revolve in a void circus, instead of planning and implementing what  cabinet ministers are expected to do for the well-being of their people. They walk on a razor edge and have limited choices to make. The  best option is to hand over resignation and save personal reputation for better days to come.

In short, every one of name in the former and the current TFG establishment take long knives at dusk and hunt down true or presumed political opponents in the dark alleys of the government sanctuary in Mogadishu. At down, their they retreat to their rooms under the same roof and hug each other as best friends! Don't believe such theater, they set political traps to each other at night and wait who falls in and who survives next day! The nocturnal hunt is a full time job for the legislators and cabinet members with a back up support from one of the presidents, and participants are paid in cash at the end of their assignments.   

What's more appalling is that UN Regional Officials stroke the backs of TFG incumbents as old buddies and give preferential treatment,  political leverage and benefits to live at large for the service they do for the interest clubs. Together, they are instrumental of grounding any positive initiative that enhances bright future for the southern regions of Somalia. Do not buy what they say or write! Such misleading circus plays out as part of a vicious mutual circle shared by TFG operatives, the EGAD countries, the UN Regional officials and the AMISOM contingents.

On the same token, take a note of what the leaders of the Autonomous Regions have achieved in short time. Sure, they are in short supply financial possibility, but they are doing what a genuine government is expected to do for its people, no matter of what is their financial possibility, and people enjoy the early harvest of democracy at work.  

XI. Building Democratic Blocks On Sinking Sand

The past and current of Transitional Federal Governments are an example of why Federalism is incompatible with the reality of the nation at the present time. Instead, it overshadows the efforts of the nascent regional autonomous states to make further strides ahead, while side-tracking those who are trying to move forward and catching up with the stable regions.

Here is where everything goes wrong as far as UNDP Regional Office has envisioned about the democratization process of the southern regions of Somalia. The UN is adamant to believe that lack of political parties in the political scene of the country is a short cut way of hammering out a redeemable federal system where it can help out the best. Wrong!

The Somali masses believe the other way around. The masses expect that the UN ought to encourage genuine local politicians and enhancing them the establishment of political parties to take roots in their respective regions. The opposition political parties in Somaliland suffice a laudable experience.

Political parties are the basic credibility of any democratically elected government. Members of the legislative body- the backbone of any democratic system of government- are handpicked by their respective parties and are accountable to the governing rules of their  political institutions. They are in line with the policies of their party and work for the interest of their constituencies. The party votes out of office of those legislator(s) who fail their performance. The voters rule the political landscape of the country and not the vice verse. This systematic, democratic linkage is missing. What the current politicians are doing now is running a tyrannical political club- like building a suspended house without fundamental ground supports- and UN is fully aware of such artificial mishap! Politically, any constituted FTG revolves on square one and nothing good is expected to come out of it.

XII. UNDP TO RESOLVE THE WRONG PAST

Back up the political parties to erode the role of warlords, while defeating radical faction groups and building the roots of democratization process from the grassroots level.

Let the UNDP helps out the autonomous regions to consolidate the normalization process of their respective regions by giving them due time to take part of the adoption of federal system for the nation.

Let the world invest in development projects on social and economic sectors that can sustain the coffins of the regional autonomous states who are on the right tracks. The UNDP assistance is needed as long as the country remains in transition and restoring the stability of respective autonomous regions.

Let UNDP give top priority the development of human resources and capacity building, as well as promoting the private sector to develop economically viable local resources that can offer local job opportunity.

Let the UNDP stop funding on incompatible policies and using instead such resources for positive ends incremental to the future of Somalia. The scapegoating has to stop for good.

XIII. Possible Volatile Inter-Clan Wars

There are dominant clan(s) and numerically smaller clans and sub-clans residing in the mix of the general population in every region of Somalia, including the autonomous regions of Somalia. This is a hypothetic theory that could prove right in any given day, and by taking into account of volatile circumstances that could take place in the near future.

Two major bordering clans may get drawn into sporadic or all front clan conflict(s) in the autonomous regions. Pastoral fighters from respective autonomous regions may get involved in countryside wars that eventually could spread into urbanized communities. One or both of the fighting parties may get a back door help from affiliated regional authorities in the form of ammunitions, shipment of small fire arms or armed technicals- the rapid task force of every region- by boosting the striking capacity of their nomadic distant cousins. The conflict could upset or undermine the stability and the authority of two regions next to each other.

Eventually, such nomadic wars may involve stable regions and escalate into full fledged inter-clan wars, which also could draw other blood related clans to put their weight in the conflict and fight each other to the end. It did not happen yet but could be a possibility that could put off the hope of regional stability and development objectives. Keep an eye on communal flare ups, while snubbing the problem  from the bud, because no one can predict the outcome of future conflicts.

XIV. Swaying Regional Authorities

The cash strapped regional authorities maybe swayed by Drug cartels or arms traffickers who are ready to buy fresh basis for their illegal business. They could employ local intermediaries, run their business undetected, while remaining under the radar of the law. Eventually the business may turn intractable by moving into the clan system, who will share the dividend of the profit with international fugitives. The intent of outfoxing the immediate business partner is part of the Somali character, which could materializes at any day. Such trafficking business may add up to our daily problems and could take a negative turn into the lives of the people.  The world  intelligence feelers have to make sure that nothing of that shoddy business take roots in Somalia.

By Prof. Mohamoud Iman Adan (     .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) ) - keydmedia.net Correspondent

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