Bitter regional war looming in southern Somalia

Wagosha - The capture of Kismayo by Kenyan and Ogaden militants last month was received with mixed reactions. The international community led the US welcomed the defeat of Al-Shabab, which became an obstacle to Somalia peace process for so long.

Editorial Keydmedia Online
21 November 2012

But on the other hand a major concern after the fall of the city is emerging with possibility of a new cycle of regional conflict. Kenyan ministers, being so inexperienced on Somalia affairs, gave inciting interviews to the international media, in which they justified their move of siding with one clan, among the clans struggling for the control of Jubba regions.

Somali government stance

Somali newly elected president; Hassan Sheikh Mohamud also welcomed the victory of Kenyan forces in Jubba regions, since they are part of AMISOM. But Kenyan government seems to be distancing its forces from the African Union Mission, since being under the peacekeepers will jeopardize Ogaden clan agendas orchestrated by Kenyan state minister for defence Mohamed Yusuf Haji, his son, Nuradin Yusuf a senior intelligence officer assigned and other government officials from Ogaden clan. 

President Hassan also opposed the so called IGAD move to form regional administration in Jubba without the permission of his government. The Ethiopian born warlord Ahmed Madobe from Ogaden clan, who led the Kenyan forces to Kismayo, accused the Somali president of meddling Jubbaland affairs, as if the area was not part of Somalia.

Another Ethiopian born warmonger Mohammed Abdi Gandi, who also hails from Ogaden clan visited Mogadishu to convince his close friend President Hassan to approve the Ogaden clan project, but in vain.

Somali president denied claims that he had hidden agenda against Ogaden clan, allegations made by Ogadeni clan members in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia. He said the people of Jubbaland are fed up with bitter civil war that claimed lives of thousands and made others to flee their homes. He admitted that the people of Jubbaland are peaceful people and that all the wars that took place in the past 22 years were exported from other regions within Somalia or abroad.

The comment of President Hassan is clear evidence that clans from north eastern region of Somalia (self-proclaimed regional state of Puntland), Ogaden clans from Ethiopia’s Zone Five and Kenya’s North East Province were responsible of Jubba atrocities, with the aim of capturing land that does not belong to them. The president was hailed my many peace lovers people in Jubbaland on his comment.

Kenya’s ill-advised policy on Jubbaland

After the fall of Kismayo, while praising Kenyan forces, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, said his country had over the years invested immense diplomatic energy and financial resources in the search for a stable and secure Somalia.

But his deputy Mudavadi and other ministers spoke as if Somalia was part of Kenya, without evaluating and even thinking about the risk that can befall on Kenyan citizens. Corrupt Kenyan government does not satisfy the needs of its forces, and this explains why Kenyan soldiers will not accept to leave behind their families, knowing that no one will even take care of their beloved children. Its obvious that no single Kenyan minister can explain what is going on in Somalia, specially in Kismayo, leave alone making peace.

Plans of war by Ogaden clan in Jubbaland

The Ogadeni armed refugees who started to arrive in Somalia since 1974 failed to maintain their take-over of Somaliland and Hiran region, despite huge support from Siyad Barre’s government. The fall of Barre’s regime was the end of their dream in those regions, but taking advantage of Somalia’s clan politics; they remained in Jubba regions with the support of other Darod clan invaders.

Bearing in mind that the local people of Jubbaland will resist as those of Somaliland and Hiran region, the Ogadenis have come up with military plan that involves Ogadeni men in Kenyan army and Ogadenis in Ethiopian army to join forces in Jubbaland and eliminate all the indigenous clans in the region.

The key figures in this plan include Mohamed Yusuf Haji, Kenya’s defence minister, Farah Moalim Kenya’s Deputy Speaker, Nuradin Yusuf Haji, Mahbub Moalim (Secretary General of IGAD), high ranking officials from Ethiopia’s Zone Five region, Ogadeni MPs in Somali parliament and many others.

Members of Wagosha community from US and Somalia who posed as delegates of the shoddy IGAD meeting in Karen, Nairobi gathered crucial information about the Ogaden conspiracy. One of these members told Wagoshanews that Nuradin Yusuf Haji makes frequent visits to Mogadishu to meet Ogadeni and other Darod elders at Mogadishu airport to brief them on the military plan. The source added that Nuradin disguises himself as a member of Shiqal clan to hide his real identity.

In UK, the Ogadeni clan members from Ethiopia hold meetings in North London (at a restaurant near Finsbury Park and at Finsbury Park Mosque). Where they donate money for war and incite war against all clans opposing the settlement of Ogadeni members from Ethiopia in Jubbaland. A man called Abdirashid is the organizer of these events. He always appears in UK Somali TV stations, with abusive language against some Somali clans and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Similar meetings take place weekly in Europe, North America, and Africa.

The Wagosha members who were at IGAD meeting also noted that Nuradin Yusuf Haji coordinates settlement of thousands of Ogadeni clan members from Ethiopia and Kenya, who are taking over lands in Jubbaland , so that they can claim being the majority clan of the region.

He is also responsible of moving ONLF forces and Ogadeni militants from North East Kenya to Somalia to fight for, what the Ogadenis call the liberation of the golden land.

The leader of Majerten region, Abdirahman Farole also showed his willingness to join Ogaden forces in Jubbaland invasion. He claimed that thousands of Majerten people who fled from Jubbaland will be settled soon to Kismayo,since they currently live in Puntland region as refugees, as he put it. His conspiracy includes sending thousands of Majerten militants to Kismayo. It has to be noted that Farole had in the past admitted presence of Ogadeni refugees in Somalia, who should go back to their country.

Local people in Jubbaland, according to the international laws of their civil rights will have no any other option than defending any aggression against their land, human rights and properties. Already many clans in the region have mobilized their men for expected war against the invaders.

Human rights violation in Kismayo

History repeats its self, as Ogadeni militants in Kismayo continues atrocities against civilians. With the help of Kenyan forces, the Ogadeni militants’ torture, kill loot and rape civilians by labelling them as Al Shabab sympathizers. This acts which violate universal human rights laws, will also incite animosity in the region that witnessed genocide and all sorts of atrocities in the last 50 years.

The international community has to be cautious about inexperienced Kenyan leaders, who will simply put the Horn of Africa under fire, if they do not stop their blind move of favouring one clan against the others.

The Kenyan forces in Kismayo have to be fully under AMISOM commander, and not under Nuradin Yusuf Haji, who is the real man in control, rather than General Karanja, whom some Somali clans call him as the yes man of Yusuf Haji family.

Wagoshanews Desk - New York , USA

The views expressed in this article are the author